2025 Investment Outlook: Bitcoin, Tesla, Gold
In the rapidly changing investment landscape of the first half of 2025, investors face not only the extreme volatility of technology stocks and cryptocurrencies but also sudden policy risks. In early April, former U.S. President Trump announced a large-scale tariff policy that imposed high tariffs on major economies such as China, the European Union, Japan, and Taiwan, immediately triggering turmoil in the global financial markets.
This sudden “Liberation Day Tariff” storm reminded investors that in an era where geopolitical and economic policies are highly intertwined, relying solely on market trend predictions is no longer sufficient. Instead, a sound and sustained investment strategy becomes even more crucial.
In light of the turbulent global economic situation, where should investors allocate their funds?
Bitcoin, Tesla, and gold each represent distinctly different investment logics and potentials. Their past performances have been varied, so what opportunities and risks will they present looking ahead to 2025?
Investment Assumptions and Methods
Please have Chat GPT calculate the performance of these three assets after six months of regular fixed investments based on the following information.
- Investment Period: January 2025 to June 2025, a total of six fixed investments
- Investment Amount: $100 per month for each asset (approximately 3,000 New Taiwan dollars)
- Purchase Timing: Closing price on the first trading day of each month
- Evaluation Time Point: June 10, 2025
Monthly Prices
| Month | Tesla Price | Bitcoin Price | Gold Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | $379.28 | $94,443.52 | $2,634.04 |
| February | $292.98 | $100,644.20 | $2,700.00 |
| March | $259.16 | $84,373.01 | $2,800.00 |
| April | $268.46 | $95,000.00 | $2,900.00 |
| May | $280.52 | $102,000.00 | $3,000.00 |
| June | $342.69 | $105,800.00 | $3,307.56 |
Investment Performance Analysis
Based on market prices as of June 10, the total market value of the three assets was estimated, and the returns were calculated:
| Asset Class | Total Investment Amount (USD) | Market Value on June 10 (USD) | Return Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla | $600 | $704.07 | +17.34% |
| Bitcoin | $600 | $665.10 | +10.85% |
| Gold | $600 | $694.15 | +15.69% |
Tesla rebounded significantly in early June, achieving the highest return rate of +17.34%. Gold rose steadily, making it the second-best performer during this period with a return of +15.69%. Bitcoin also delivered a commendable positive return of +10.85%. The simulation of this regular fixed investment indicates that all three assets presented positive returns in the first half of 2025, outperforming the market average overall, highlighting the risk diversification and cost averaging effects of “regular fixed investment” in a high-volatility market.
Tesla (TSLA)
Despite a weak performance in the first quarter of 2025, where it even dipped below $260, a regular fixed investment strategy allowed for more shares to be acquired at lower points. Starting from April, the stock price gradually rebounded, surpassing $350 in early June, resulting in an overall return of +17.34%, making it the most profitable asset among the three.
Gold
The price of gold consistently increased over the six-month period, rising from approximately $2,600 to over $3,300. Although the average cost of the six investments rose monthly, the overall upward price trend resulted in a final return of +15.69%. Gold has always been seen as a “safe-haven asset,” particularly favored for its value retention characteristics during times of heightened global political and economic uncertainty or shifts in interest rate trends. For those with a lower risk tolerance or seeking to allocate a “stabilizing asset,” gold remains a key defensive option.
Bitcoin
In the perception of most investors, Bitcoin is regarded as a highly volatile and risky asset. This perception stems from its dramatic price fluctuations over recent years, such as daily swings exceeding 10% and price halving and doubling within a year, leading many to consider it a “speculative asset” rather than a stable one.
However, based on the regular fixed investment simulation, purchasing Bitcoin with a fixed monthly amount showed its performance was not as “extreme” as expected. During the period, Bitcoin did decline from February to March (from $100,000 to about $84,000) but gradually rebounded to $107,000 by early June. The overall volatility range was actually comparable to Tesla stocks and even smoother than Tesla’s fluctuations.
Importantly, the regular fixed investment strategy allows for more units to be purchased at lower price points; thus, even with Bitcoin at a low in March, the subsequent rebound raised the overall return, ultimately yielding over +10% positive returns.
In contrast, while Tesla rebounded strongly, the fluctuation between its March low ($259) and early June high ($342) was as high as 35%, indicating much greater volatility.
This result demonstrates that a regular fixed investment strategy effectively averages out costs, especially when facing short-term market volatility, allowing asset accumulation without the need for precise timing.
Moreover, diversifying asset allocation is also crucial. If one were to concentrate on a single asset (like Tesla), the risk of premature stop-loss due to poor performance in one or two months is higher. However, by combining assets with differing characteristics, such as gold and Bitcoin, overall volatility can be reduced.
Most importantly, short-term profits do not guarantee long-term security. Although this six-month period yielded mostly positive returns, the market changes rapidly, and investors should adjust their strategies based on personal goals, risk tolerance, and investment horizons.
Reference: bitget