[Perspective] The Turmoil of the Trade War: Can Bitcoin Hedge Against the Dollar Crisis?

Tariff War Chaos: Can Bitcoin Hedge Against the Dollar Crisis?

Another global tariff war has erupted, which is not news, but its chain reaction is shaking our accustomed financial order. I would like to discuss from the perspective of blockchain how this turmoil is bringing the dollar down from its pedestal and making Bitcoin the focus of a new stage, while also considering what role Web3 is preparing to play.

Fundamental Contradiction: Hegemony Comes from Deficits, Not Surpluses

A more fundamental question has emerged: If the United States truly becomes a trade surplus nation, can the dollar still serve as the world currency? This is a logic that seems paradoxical from the perspective of the Web3 world, much like attempting to use Bitcoin as a stablecoin, which is inherently conflicting. The dollar sustains global hegemony by relying on “exporting deficits”: the U.S. prints money, the world pays the bill, and other countries use dollars to purchase U.S. debt, which the U.S. then uses as fuel to develop its economy. However, the premise of this game is that dollars must constantly flow out. If the U.S. begins to hoard dollars and turns into a surplus nation, the world will instead face a shortage of dollars and liquidity, leading to a breakdown in demand for U.S. debt, and U.S. financing will quickly dry up. Rising interest rates and bursting bubbles; not raising interest rates leads to a collapse in bond prices—this is fundamentally a typical liquidity trap of a DeFi protocol.

Bitcoin Is No Longer a Traitor, But a Backup for the Era

Amidst market chaos, Bitcoin quietly surpassed $80,000. It did not rise alongside gold but has quietly become a kind of “fiat currency panic index.” In the past few weeks, although ETF funds have flowed out, the coin price has remained stable, evidently supported by smart money. What does this signify? It indicates that Bitcoin has transitioned from being a “high-volatility speculative asset” to a “decentralized asset combating fiat currency uncertainty.” Arthur Hayes stated that Bitcoin is like an “alarm bell for financial chaos,” and I completely agree. Web3 is redefining the concept of hedging assets in a new way.

If the Dollar Loses Its Favor, Is Web3 Ready?

Many still view Web3 as a “technological revolution,” but I believe it resembles more of a “currency governance revolution.” As trust in the dollar fractures, it does not mean the world will directly embrace the renminbi or euro, as they too carry regulatory burdens and sovereign risks. Instead, a “multipolar currency + decentralized structure” is more likely to become mainstream: the dollar takes a step back, the renminbi dominates Asia, and the euro locks Europe, while cross-border transactions utilize gold and stablecoins, with Bitcoin evolving into a globally accepted currency. This is akin to a multichain world, where each chain has its own governance logic, but the ecosystem is connected through bridges and standards. This is also why what I am working on, KryptoGO, is never just a more user-friendly wallet, but aims to help enterprises find their own anchor in this multichain, multipolar, chaotic era—whether through stablecoin settlements, compliant blockchain applications, or identity verification and risk control.

The True Underlying Logic

This tariff war seems to be a false alert from the system, warning us that “the old logic is about to break down.” I do not believe that Web3 is the antidote to this chaos, but it may very well represent a new problem-solving logic—no longer relying on a single center, nor believing in absolute control, but rather constructing a more flexible and resilient monetary and trust mechanism. We are still in the testing phase, but this turmoil has provided Web3 with a stress test. I choose to believe that this is not the beginning of a collapse, but rather a herald of a new order.