What Happened?
Economist Timothy Peterson predicts that the bottom price for Bitcoin is $69,000 and believes there is a high probability that it will not fall below this low point again. This provides investors with an important price reference, helping to assess the potential risks associated with Bitcoin.
Despite market volatility in the short term, Peterson maintains an optimistic view of Bitcoin’s long-term potential, forecasting that its price could reach $1.5 million by 2035, highlighting analysts’ confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value.
The cost basis for Bitcoin is between $84,000 and $85,000, which is crucial for evaluating market sentiment and potential reversals, making these prices significant observation indicators for investors.
Will Bitcoin Drop Again?
Recently, Bitcoin prices have exhibited volatility, dipping to their lowest level since November of last year, raising concerns about its future trajectory in the market. However, renowned network economist Timothy Peterson remains optimistic about future trends, believing there is a 75% chance that Bitcoin will reach new highs within the next nine months.
In early March, Peterson tweeted on social platform X that the bottom price for Bitcoin is approximately $69,000, and the current price is already quite close to this range. Therefore, he asserts that there is a 95% chance Bitcoin will not fall below this low point again, and the likelihood of a positive rebound in the future is significant.
Lowest Price Forward doesn’t tell you where Bitcoin will be. It tells you where Bitcoin won’t be.
There is a 95% chance it won’t fall below $69k.
— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) March 4, 2025
This prediction has excited many netizens. The attention comes because Peterson’s past forecasts, including those during the 2020 bull market, have proven accurate. The “Lowest Price Forward” indicator used by Peterson tracks the long-term price trend of Bitcoin. While it cannot predict where Bitcoin’s price will go, it can predict how low it “will not” drop.
Despite Bitcoin’s recent drop to $78,000, Peterson believes this situation will not persist. He points out that market corrections typically occur after significant price declines, when investors panic or despair and sell off their assets, followed by a cooling-off period of two to three months. During this time, prices tend to stabilize and then rise again.
Bitcoin
In June 2020, Peterson predicted that Bitcoin would never return to a four-digit price, and indeed Bitcoin has not returned to such a price level. This year, when Bitcoin’s price was around $92,000, Peterson set a long-term target of $1.5 million for Bitcoin by 2035. It is evident that despite market declines, Peterson remains confident in Bitcoin’s long-term potential.
While some market participants remain cautious amid recent volatility, Peterson’s analysis presents a more optimistic outlook. His research indicates that after this market adjustment period, Bitcoin is likely to resume its upward trend. Additionally, the “Bitcoin price trend” indicator has successfully predicted long-term trends, adding credibility to his forecasts.
Geopolitical decisions and macroeconomic factors continue to influence Bitcoin’s price, and investor sentiment fluctuates with global events. Furthermore, in a post on X on March 25, Peterson emphasized that Bitcoin is currently near the lower bound of historical ranges, with a high probability of a positive rebound in the future. He stated, “In the short term, Bitcoin has a 50% chance of increasing by over 50%.”
Amazingly Bitcoin is tracking right along that lower bound. History repeats.
The way to interpret this chart is there is a 75% chance that Bitcoin will go higher from here, since it’s at the bottom 25% threshold. There is a 50% chance it will gain 50%+ in the short term.
— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) March 24, 2025
Peterson’s statements are based on earlier research, which found that the majority of Bitcoin’s bullish performance typically occurs in April and October. Looking back over the past decade, the average increases for these two months have been 12.98% and 21.98%, respectively. An anonymous analyst from the cryptocurrency analysis platform CryptoQuant, known as Crazzyblockk, pointed out that the cost basis for most active addresses is between $84,000 and $85,000. If it falls below this cost basis, it could trigger a sell-off. This means that the $84,000 to $85,000 range currently represents a key area influencing Bitcoin’s price direction.
The analyst added, “These on-chain cost basis levels represent decision areas for a shift in market sentiment. Traders and investors should closely monitor price reactions in these areas to assess trend strength and potential reversals.”
Reference: cointelegraph, coinmarketcap