Bitcoin Breaks $100,000, Perhaps Just the Beginning
On December 5, 2024, at 10:00 am, Bitcoin officially broke $100,000.
In the past year, BTC has more than doubled in value; in the past three years, it has increased nearly sixfold; in the past five years, it has increased nearly twentyfold; in the past ten years, it has increased 500-fold. In the past fifteen years, starting from Bitcoin Pizza Day, it has increased 40 million times… For sixteen years, Bitcoin has been at a new starting point.
During these sixteen years, Bitcoin has been attacked by governments around the world, then gradually accepted and openly supported by governments. It has been questioned by the public and then held by more and more people. By 2024, the number of users on the Binance cryptocurrency exchange alone exceeded 210 million. Every time people thought Bitcoin had reached its peak and was nearing the end, it was always proven to be just a new starting point.
The narrative and significance of Bitcoin itself are also constantly evolving, and people’s views on Bitcoin have been changing.
Fifteen years ago, it was just a small experiment by cryptographers, where a programmer from Florida bought two pizzas with 10,000 Bitcoins. Ten years ago, it was just a payment method that provided a breeding ground for illegal transactions such as gambling, drugs, and money laundering. Most of its use cases were for illegal transactions. Five years ago, it, along with the cryptocurrency industry, gradually grew into a new financial system. In this system, there is the “crypto Nasdaq” (Ethereum), “crypto bank” (Tether, Ethena), “crypto securities company” (Binance), and an account system (Metamask)… Each product has tens of millions or even billions of users. It has almost all the infrastructure and products of the traditional financial industry, but it is more efficient, streamlined, transparent, decentralized, and globalized. Three years ago, the cryptocurrency industry expanded beyond financial scenarios and entered the Web3 application scene. Thus, the next-generation financial system + the next-generation network system became its new mission.
Nowadays, more people believe that Bitcoin is digital gold. Its market value has reached $2 trillion, surpassing the market value of silver, accounting for one-tenth of the market value of gold.
Bitcoin has been recognized and supported by sovereign countries such as the United States and Japan. This process took only sixteen years. What is even more surprising is that the blockchain technology behind Bitcoin has spawned a whole new financial ecosystem and internet ecosystem. The thousands or even tens of thousands of crypto institutions on these two ecosystems continue to promote the popularization of Bitcoin, making it a truly possible global currency.
When Bitcoin reaches $100,000, everyone raises a common question:
Is Bitcoin nearing the end? How far is Bitcoin from the end? Will Bitcoin have a new narrative?
5 billion internet users have not yet come into contact with Bitcoin
$100,000 is still just the beginning for Bitcoin, and this time it will welcome new “buyers.”
The biggest new buyers this year are undoubtedly the world’s largest fund, BlackRock, and the major buyers behind funds such as BlackRock, which are US corporations and institutions.
In January 2024, the United States approved a BTC ETF, which means that listed companies, pension funds, BlackRock funds, and universities such as Stanford can publicly buy and hold Bitcoin through ETFs issued by BlackRock and other funds.
The approval of the US Bitcoin ETF has sparked a wave of large institutions buying Bitcoin in the United States. Global large companies are rushing to buy Bitcoin, with $100 billion flowing into BTC ETFs in just 10 months. Almost every month, tens of billions of dollars are being invested in Bitcoin through US fund companies.
Bitcoin has also surged from over $40,000 to $100,000, largely due to the approval of the US BTC ETF, which allows US institutions to buy Bitcoin through legitimate channels such as ETFs. The approval of the US BTC ETF and the subsequent 10 months of data performance have become a miracle in ETF history.
When Bitcoin goes from $100,000 to $200,000, what new buyers will enter?
First of all, from the perspective of institutions, the institutions buying Bitcoin at the moment are still mainly from the United States. The US Bitcoin spot ETF is still rapidly attracting funds in the scale of tens of billions of dollars per month, and there is no sign of stopping. US and global companies and institutions will continue to buy Bitcoin through Bitcoin spot ETFs.
From a global perspective, major economies such as Japan, Europe, and China have not completely lifted restrictions on institutional purchases. Once major economies lift these restrictions, it will be another leap forward.
According to the well-known “time machine theory,” innovative assets and mechanisms often spread from the United States to developed countries and then to developing countries.
Whether it is in the field of assets and finance: gold, Nasdaq listing mechanism, SPAC listing mechanism, or in the field of technology: the internet, chips, mobile phones, new energy vehicles, they often follow the time machine theory.
Secondly, from the perspective of ordinary people, the adoption rate of Bitcoin is still far from enough. According to estimates by Silicon Valley investment firm a16z through various methods, the current number of active cryptocurrency users worldwide is about 30 to 60 million per month.
Even if this range is expanded to include users who have held cryptocurrencies, according to analysis by Crypto.com in April 2024, there are 610 million cryptocurrency users worldwide. With a global population of 8.2 billion, of which 5.4 billion people use the internet, there are approximately 5 billion internet users who have not experienced cryptocurrency products.
The cryptocurrency industry hopes to create a global new financial system and network system, allowing everyone to use cryptocurrency products just like internet products. In 2024, 5.4 billion people use the internet, but there are only 610 million cryptocurrency users, indicating a huge potential market. The cryptocurrency industry is changing this situation and is changing the financial and network systems.
When the cryptocurrency industry becomes as popular as the internet industry, Bitcoin will reach ten times the current population.
Finally, there is another key buyer: sovereign countries.
After El Salvador, Bitcoin is expected to become a reserve asset for more and more sovereign countries. Especially after Donald Trump was elected as the President of the United States, major economies such as China, the United States, Japan, Europe, and the United Arab Emirates are expected to accelerate the process of adding Bitcoin as a national reserve asset, which will further boost Bitcoin.
It is not unfounded for major countries to personally buy Bitcoin. On November 22, according to Reuters, Trump’s “Cryptocurrency Advisory Committee” is expected to establish a committed Bitcoin reserve.
Trump has openly supported Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency industry on multiple occasions. During his campaign, Trump made several promises to support cryptocurrencies, such as including Bitcoin in the national reserve, making the United States the world capital of cryptocurrencies, and relaxing regulations.
Trump’s proposals have received support from some political and industry experts. For example, US Senator Cynthia Lummis has proposed a bill to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve, with the goal of acquiring 1 million BTC within five years and holding it for at least 20 years to hedge against US national debt.
When the United States adopts Bitcoin as a reserve, most countries around the world are also likely to allocate a corresponding proportion of Bitcoin assets, just like gold.
In conclusion, whether it is the 5 billion internet users, the tens of billions of dollars flowing into BTC spot ETFs from major institutions every month, or the sovereign national funds, they are all potential buyers of Bitcoin and the key “buyers” for Bitcoin to rise from $100,000 to $200,000.
$100,000, Just the Beginning
$100,000 is only the beginning for Bitcoin. If Bitcoin wants to rise from $100,000 to $200,000, it not only needs new buyers but also a new group of believers and builders to expand its reach.
Cryptocurrency practitioners may be one of the most exploratory groups in the world.
They not only need to understand the development of various blockchain technologies such as ZK but also need to understand the new trends in various technology industries such as AI, VR, and the metaverse. They not only need to deeply understand US politics and elections, the timing and extent of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts, and cryptocurrency policies in Hong Kong and Singapore but also need to constantly pay attention to wars, economic crises, stock market fluctuations, and various macro events. They need to understand the differences between public chains such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Sui, and Base, and be familiar with concepts and tracks such as Web3 social, Web3 games, DeFi, and NFT.
From ICOs to DeFi, to NFTs, and now to mass adoption, cryptocurrency practitioners are constantly expanding the boundaries of the blockchain network, allowing cryptocurrency assets like Bitcoin to truly circulate globally and generate value.
Many people ask, what is the meaning of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies? Why do so many people join the cryptocurrency industry?
I often answer that when the value of Argentina’s national currency depreciates by over 50% annually, companies like Binance and Tether provide stablecoins to protect people’s assets from significant depreciation. This is the meaning of Bitcoin’s existence. When people want to transfer money to family and friends across borders but face multiple barriers imposed by traditional economic and political systems, requiring high fees and long waiting times, this is the meaning of Bitcoin’s existence. When entrepreneurs of startups find it difficult to collaborate with employees from various countries with different currencies and systems at a low cost within the existing system, this is the meaning of Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, and blockchain.
Bitcoin creates value and continues to explore the possibilities of creating new value. It is building a new financial system and network system, but this path is still only partially completed. The new builders still have a long way to go.
In conclusion
During the Republican era in China, the first thing university professors did when they received their salaries was to rush to buy rice because the price would rise if they waited for even an hour.
Such things happen all the time, in every corner of the world, in every generation. Some countries have milder symptoms, such as China, Japan, and the United States, while some countries have more severe symptoms, such as Argentina. Some countries may experience worsened symptoms at any time, such as Russia and Ukraine.
Every person has their good and bad sides, and the existence of a country has its good and bad sides.
The emergence of the internet has made it impossible for most countries to block information at will, combating the evil side of the country. The emergence of Bitcoin has made it impossible for most countries to arbitrarily increase the issuance of currency, combating the evil side of the country.
And countries cannot stop Bitcoin because Bitcoin is just a technology, a tool. As Russian President Putin said at the Russia Calling Forum on December 4, “Who can ban Bitcoin? No one can. Who can ban the use of other electronic payment methods? No one can. Because these are new technologies.”
This is why Bitcoin can reach $100,000 per coin.
This is also why $100,000 is still just the beginning for Bitcoin.