Tesla released the Robotaxi at the “We, Robot” event on October 11th! CEO Elon Musk previously revealed that the Robotaxi has no steering wheel or pedals, and it is considered a key breakthrough for Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology.
What are the highlights of this release? Which Taiwan stocks are expected to benefit? In addition, why are Wall Street analysts generally not optimistic about the commercialization prospects of Robotaxi, and what are the reasons behind it?
What are the 3 highlights of “We, Robot”?
According to Deepwater Asset Management, it is predicted that there will be a chance to see three different models at the Robotaxi release event on October 10th:
Robotaxi: Expected to be a prototype of the Robotaxi. The appearance is expected to be futuristic, similar to Cybertruck, with no steering wheel, pedals, or rearview mirrors. It is expected to demonstrate the autonomous driving capabilities of Robotaxi through Tesla’s ride-hailing app on certain tracks or routes.
Model 2: The entry-level Model 2 (also known as Model A) with an expected price of about 800,000 New Taiwan Dollars will be announced. The appearance of the car will be different from Robotaxi, but it will share the production line with Robotaxi.
Cybervan: Musk is expected to announce a fully automatic 8-10 seat Robotaxi XL plan, using autonomous driving to achieve an affordable transportation vision. This model will focus on dense urban areas or play a role in public transportation. Deepwater Asset Management estimates that Cybervan will expand the potential market for ride-hailing services by 20%.
Tesla’s presentation in March 2023 showed a prototype of what appears to be Cybercab.
Image/
Tesla
In simple terms, the design vision of Robotaxi is to create a vehicle with “no rearview mirrors, pedals, or steering wheel,” and it belongs to Level 4, where even if the driver does not respond appropriately, Robotaxi can safely park.
Technically, Tesla’s FSD technology mainly relies on cameras and AI to drive under the supervision of the driver, without the need for expensive hardware such as radar and lidar systems.
Musk has predicted that the Robotaxi business could expand Tesla’s market value from the current $750 billion to $5 trillion.
However, its FSD technology is generally doubted.
Why is Wall Street not optimistic about the commercialization of Robotaxi?
Reason 1: FSD technology still lags behind Waymo and Cruise
Since the launch of Tesla’s FSD program, it has failed to achieve the goal of unsupervised autonomous driving. According to the foreign media “Electrek,” the system currently requires driver intervention approximately every 200 kilometers in real-world road tests, which is far from the initial promise, leading to doubts in the market about whether Tesla’s Robotaxi can truly achieve fully autonomous driving.
Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi pointed out that while Tesla is focusing on launching Robotaxi, its competitors such as Waymo and Cruise have already begun operating autonomous taxi services in some cities in the United States, “which makes Tesla appear to be technologically behind.”
Reason 2: Low probability of commercialization in the short term
One of the most bullish Wall Street analysts on Tesla, Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley, also believes that Tesla may separate Robotaxi from its existing FSD system and implement a dual-path strategy, simultaneously developing “fully automated” Cybercab and “supervised autonomous driving” ride-sharing services (multiple people riding together in the same car). However, this strategy may contradict Tesla’s promotion of the FSD system to customers over the past eight years, further weakening investor confidence.
Furthermore, Ronald Jewsikow, research director of automotive equity at investment management firm Guggenheim Partners, also believes that unless Tesla can demonstrate a commercialization path for Robotaxi in the next 12 to 24 months, investor concerns will be difficult to dispel, “but the likelihood of achieving this in the short term is low.”
But there are also optimistic views. For example, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives stated that Robotaxi is expected to be a game-changing self-driving technology and that in the next few years, AI and fully automated driving systems (FSD) alone could bring Tesla $1 trillion, “Tesla can be said to be the most underestimated AI brand on the market.”
Which are the Tesla and Robotaxi concept stocks?
From the perspective of stock prices, Tesla’s stock price has fallen by 1.58% this year as of October 9th, far behind the 23.14% increase of the Nasdaq index, severely lagging behind the seven technology giants.
However, on the other hand, the release of Robotaxi is still expected to drive automotive demand, and the following Taiwan-related automotive concept stocks are as follows:
Automotive electronic factory: Foxconn (2301)
Automotive lens factory: Largan Precision (3019)
Automotive connector factory: Hubei Lian (6279)
Automotive LED factory: Everlight (6288)
AI server board factory: Wistron (3231)
Tire pressure detector factory: System electric (5309)
Battery factory: Delta Electronics (2308), Compal (4739)
Component factory: WPG Holdings (1536), Micro-Star International (3665)
Packaging and testing factory: Tongxin Electronics (6271)
Extended Reading:
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Source:
Electrek, Deepwater Asset Management, Reuters, TechChurch
Responsible Editor: Li Xiantai