Blockchain Game Ecosystem Booms Could TON Become the Next SOL or ETH

Is TON going to be the next SOL or ETH?
There has been a lot of buzz lately about TON and Telegram, with many people speculating that TON will be the next SOL or ETH. A post by Blockworks Research has analyzed this and believes that TON’s future growth is lacking and may disappoint the public.
Low User Stickiness for Telegram
Telegram has global influence, and its significant daily active users (DAU) could potentially be directed to TON. By this measure, Telegram is one of the most widely used applications globally.
According to data provided by Telegram, it is one of the most popular apps globally with 900 million users, ranking 8th among global applications.
However, when measured by DAU, Telegram’s user stickiness is overestimated. The DAU/MAU ratio for various social applications shows that while Telegram’s monthly active users (MAU) are high, its DAU is relatively low (ranging from 55 million to 200 million, which is very low compared to competing applications). The DAU/MAU ratio is only 15%.
In comparison, Facebook’s ratio is 69%, Wechat is about 67%, Instagram is 60%, TikTok (only considering the US market) is 49%, and Twitter (X) is 45%. This indicates that Telegram’s market penetration is lower, and its user base for profitability is lower than the market’s expectations.
Note: The DAU/MAU ratio can measure user stickiness for a network or application.
Incompatibility with EVM, Limited Use of Programming Languages
The TON ecosystem team will face challenges due to the lack of EVM compatibility and FunC (the native programming language of the blockchain).
The TON Virtual Machine (TVM) is incompatible with the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) because TON uses a completely different architecture (TON is asynchronous, while Ethereum is synchronous). Therefore, the TON ecosystem does not support development in Ethereum’s Solidity programming language.
According to a 2023 developer survey report (with over 90,000 developers participating), Rust is the most favored language, with over 80% of developers hoping to use it again next year. 46.4% of developers expect to use Solidity.
On TON, there are three programming languages available: Fift, FunC, and Tact. Currently, the most used language among the three is FunC. Although FunC looks similar to the C language, it is generally not well known or favored.
Limited Coverage of the Terminal Market
Much of the growth narrative for TON is based on the idea that Telegram will become the next WeChat. However, WeChat is blocked outside the US market and only serves the Chinese market.
In contrast, the current application market is dominated by well-funded tech giants with a strong network effect, and Telegram’s largest market is in the scattered markets of the Asia-Pacific region (excluding China and Eastern Europe), which adds complexity for startups using Telegram for distribution.
The following is the distribution of Telegram downloads for the full year of 2022:
India: 104 million downloads
Russia: 34 million downloads
Indonesia: 27 million downloads
United States: 26 million downloads
Brazil: 21.94 million downloads
Egypt: 14.85 million downloads
Vietnam: 11.84 million downloads
Mexico: 11.61 million downloads
Ukraine: 10.76 million downloads
Turkey: 9.79 million downloads
FDV Valuation is Overpriced
Despite these realities, TON still has significant growth potential, and new investors have almost no safety margin.
The following image shows that among all public chains, TON’s FDV is 8.6 times its network’s annualized DEX trading volume, ranking first and at the highest level.
Additionally, the FDV is 927 times its network’s annualized fees, ranking near the top among all public chains.
This article is a collaborative reprint from:
PANews