Which Stage is Bitcoin in the Halving Cycle?
Bitcoin did not experience the explosive start that many had anticipated in early 2025. After peaking above the $100,000 mark, the price saw a significant decline, leading both investors and analysts to question: at which stage of the halving cycle is Bitcoin currently positioned?
In this article, we will penetrate through the market noise and delve into a series of key on-chain indicators and macroeconomic signals to assess whether Bitcoin’s bull market remains sustainable, or if it is about to face a deeper correction.
Healthy Correction or End of the Bull Market?
An ideal starting point is the MVRV-Z indicator. This long-established valuation metric measures asset status by comparing the market value of cryptocurrencies to their realized value (Market Value to Realized Value). When this value retraced from a peak of 3.36 to around 1.43, it coincided with Bitcoin’s price declining sharply from nearly $100,000 to a phase low of $75,000. Intuitively, such a 30% price correction is quite severe.
Recently, the MVRV Z-Score has rebounded from a low of 1.43 in 2025.
Historically, the current level of the MVRV-Z indicator often marks local bottoms rather than tops. In past cycles such as those of 2017 and 2021, the market experienced similar corrections, after which BTC’s price resumed its upward trend. In short, although this downturn has shaken investor confidence, it is essentially consistent with historical corrections in bull market cycles.
Focus on Smart Money Movements
Another key indicator is the Value Days Destroyed (VDD) multiple. This metric weighs the holding time of Bitcoin prior to trading to gauge its on-chain transfer speed. When this multiple surges, it typically signifies that experienced holders are taking profits; if it remains low for an extended period, it may indicate that the market is in an accumulation phase.
Currently, this indicator is deeply entrenched in the “green zone,” with levels akin to those at the end of a bear market or the early stages of recovery. Given the sharp reversal of BTC’s price from above $100,000, we may be witnessing the conclusion of a profit-taking wave, while some long-term accumulation behavior has become increasingly evident, suggesting that participants are strategically positioning themselves for future price increases.
The current VDD multiple indicates that long-term holders are in an accumulation phase.
One of the most insightful on-chain indicators is the “Bitcoin Cycle Capital Flow Chart,” which segments realized capital based on coin age, isolating different groups such as newcomers (holding period < 1 month) and mid-term holders (1-2 years) to observe capital migration paths. The red segment (newcomers) surged sharply near the historical high of $106,000, indicating that a significant amount of panic buying driven by FOMO occurred at the market peak. Subsequently, the activity of this group has notably cooled, retreating to levels consistent with the early to mid-stages of a bull market.
Conversely, the group holding tokens for 1-2 years (typically more macro-aware accumulators) has restarted their accumulation trend. This inverse correlation reveals the core logic of market operation: while long-term holders accumulate at the bottom, new investors often experience panic selling or choose to exit. This contrasting flow of capital aligns closely with the “accumulation—distribution” pattern observed in the complete bull market cycle of 2020-2021, reflecting the typical characteristics of historical cycles.
The Bitcoin Cycle Capital Flow Chart illustrates that BTC is flowing back into the hands of more experienced holders.
Which Stage Are We in Now?
From a macro perspective, we categorize the Bitcoin market cycle into three critical stages:
- Bear Market Phase: Deep Correction (70-90%)
- Recovery Phase: Reclaiming Historical Highs
- Bull Market Growth Phase: Parabolic Rise After Breaking Previous Highs
The bear markets of 2015 and 2018 lasted approximately 13-14 months each. Our most recent bear market cycle also lasted 14 months. Historically, the market recovery phase generally requires 23 to 26 months, and we are currently within this typical recovery time window.
Using historical cycle trends to forecast potential bull market peaks.
However, the performance of this bull market phase has been somewhat atypical. Bitcoin did not immediately experience a surge after breaking historical highs, but rather saw a correction. This may suggest that the market is constructing a higher low before entering a steeper ascent in the exponential growth phase. If we reference the average durations of 9 months and 11 months in past cycles for the exponential phase, assuming the bull market can be sustained, we anticipate that the potential peak of this cycle may occur around September 2025.
Macroeconomic Risks
Despite the encouraging on-chain data, macroeconomic headwinds remain. Analyzing the correlation chart between the S&P 500 index and Bitcoin indicates that Bitcoin still maintains a high correlation with the U.S. stock market. As concerns about a potential global recession intensify, the ongoing weakness in traditional markets may impact Bitcoin’s ability to rebound in the short term.
The correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. stocks.
Conclusion
As we have seen in our analysis, key on-chain indicators such as the MVRV Z value, Value Days Destroyed, and Bitcoin cycle capital flow suggest that the market is exhibiting a healthy development pattern consistent with cyclical laws, and revealing signs of continued accumulation by long-term holders. However, significant macroeconomic uncertainties still exist, which are critical risks to monitor closely.
This cycle is slower and more volatile than previous ones, yet it does not break the historical structural patterns. Bitcoin appears to be poised for another upward move, and if the traditional market does not worsen further, it may reach new peaks in the third or early fourth quarter.
This article is a collaborative repost from: PANews