US Election Heats Up The Two Scenarios for Bitcoin Trends if Trump or Harris Wins

What Happened?
The 2024 U.S. presidential election is approaching, with Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and former Republican President Donald Trump making their final sprints. As the election campaign heats up, Bitcoin has begun to experience significant price volatility.
Wall Street investment firm Bernstein analysts predict that if Trump wins, Bitcoin could rise to between $80,000 and $90,000.
Market analyst Miles Deutscher believes that no matter who wins the U.S. presidential election, Bitcoin could reach $100,000. However, a Harris victory could lead to an “immediate sell-off” in the Bitcoin market.
How will the cryptocurrency market develop during the countdown to the 2024 U.S. election?
In the final hours before election day, both Harris and Trump are making their last pushes in swing states, holding rallies and events, marking the end of months of campaigning.
The price of Bitcoin also experienced dramatic fluctuations between October 29 and November 3, falling by 8%, and at one point over the weekend dropped to $67,446. Although looking at the longer timeline, most investors believe the market structure remains bullish, traders expect volatility to increase as the U.S. presidential election approaches.
As of the time this article was written, the price of Bitcoin is $68,000, having fallen by 1.5% over the past 24 hours.
The most discussed topic in the community is the “development after the election” of the crypto market.
Wall Street investment firm Bernstein analysts predict that if Trump wins, Bitcoin could rise to between $80,000 and $90,000.
This optimistic forecast is mainly due to Trump constantly emphasizing his support for cryptocurrencies during his campaign rallies, including his proposal to make the United States the “global capital of cryptocurrencies,” appointing a crypto-friendly SEC to ease regulatory pressures, establishing a national Bitcoin reserve, and making the United States a center for Bitcoin mining, among other policies.
These policies show Trump’s inclination towards a crypto-friendly environment, and his campaign team even accepts cryptocurrency donations.
Market analyst Miles Deutscher stated that no matter who wins the U.S. presidential election, Bitcoin could reach $100,000, but the path and timing will vary depending on the outcome.
He believes that if Harris wins the U.S. election, the market is likely to worry that the Harris administration will maintain or even strengthen regulatory scrutiny of cryptocurrencies, leading to an “immediate sell-off” in the Bitcoin market.
How does the decentralized prediction market view it?
Furthermore, the recent drop in Bitcoin prices has triggered market concerns about increased volatility before the election. Most traders believe that Bitcoin will continue to fluctuate before the election, reflecting the market’s concerns about the potential significant impact of Trump’s or Harris’s policies on the crypto market.
In addition to analysts being optimistic about the positive impact of a Trump victory on the Bitcoin market, in the decentralized prediction market Polymarket, the trading volume supporting Trump has already reached millions of dollars.
According to statistics, the five major “Bitcoin whales” hold more than 50% of the total volume of “Yes” votes for a Trump victory. This means that if Trump indeed wins, these whales could gain a potential profit of over $81 million.
Historically, the price of Bitcoin usually rises in the months following a presidential election, and with the fourth “Bitcoin halving” event completed in April this year, some speculate that its price may reach a new historical high.
Regardless, the election outcome will not only affect the future policy direction of the United States but will also have a profound impact on the trend of the crypto market. The global market is eagerly awaiting the post-election Bitcoin market.
References:
cointelegraph