What happened?
According to the prediction platform Polymarket, the probability of Solana ETF listing in the United States in 2025 has increased from 77% to 86%.
From the market perspective, it is believed that after the inauguration of Donald Trump, it will become a catalyst for the listing of other types of cryptocurrency ETFs.
In order for Solana ETF to successfully list, it must adopt a “Grantor Trust” structure similar to Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, and avoid being considered a security, otherwise it will face stricter regulatory requirements.
Polymarket predicts a high probability of 86% for the listing of Solana ETF in the United States.
According to data released by the cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket on New Year’s Day, the initial probability of Solana ETF listing in the United States in 2025 was 77%. However, Matthew Sigel, research director at asset management company VanEck, responded that this probability was “underestimated.”
Underpriced imo— matthew sigel, recovering CFA (@matthew_sigel) January 2, 2025
As of the time of writing, the probability predicted on January 3 has indeed reached 86%. The foreign media “Cointelegraph” analyzed that Sigel’s optimism reflects the industry’s expectations for more cryptocurrency ETFs to be listed in the United States, especially after the election of Donald Trump, who supports cryptocurrencies, as the President of the United States. Trump has stated that he hopes to make the United States the “world’s crypto capital.”
Trump’s presidency will help promote Solana ETF
Whether Solana ETF will be listed or not has attracted industry attention. In June of last year, VanEck and other competitors such as 21Shares submitted relevant applications to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), but they were questioned by the SEC in August, pointing out that Solana may be considered a security rather than a commodity.
If cryptocurrencies are considered securities, the establishment and listing of ETFs will become more complicated, as they will need to comply with the strict regulations of U.S. securities laws. The institutions issuing ETFs must complete more compliance procedures, such as submitting detailed documents, registration applications, and ensuring that transactions with investors comply with securities law requirements.
This controversy has affected the ETF launch plans of many asset management institutions, but from the market’s perspective, the victory of Donald Trump will be a catalyst for the listing of other types of cryptocurrency ETFs. As early as November 2024 after the presidential election, Sigel predicted that the probability of Solana ETF being approved in the United States in 2025 is “very high.”
“Cointelegraph” pointed out that the current Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs listed in the United States use a special structure called “Grantor Trust,” which is suitable for funds that simply hold one type of commodity. If Solana ETF wants to successfully list, it must adopt a similar structure and avoid being considered a security, otherwise it will face stricter regulatory requirements.
Whether Solana ETF can successfully list, the year 2025 when Donald Trump officially takes office as President of the United States will be a key point.
Sources: Cointelegraph, Coinpedia