What Makes Decentralized Prediction Market TrueMarkets Different?
Despite facing strict scrutiny and challenges from US regulatory agencies, Polymarket has gained fame and successfully ignited the heat of the prediction market by accurately predicting the US election.
Behind Polymarket’s rise, there is no lack of support from influential figures such as Vitalik Buterin, the co-founder of Ethereum. Now, another decentralized prediction market called TrueMarkets has also gained Vitalik’s endorsement and support.
According to data from Paduan Monitor on November 19th, the address labeled “vitalik.eth” on the blockchain has bridged 32 ETH to Base and minted 400 Patron NFTs.
Vitalik’s endorsement immediately caught the market’s attention. OpenSea data shows that over the past 24 hours, more than 3,300 Patron NFTs have been sold, with a sales volume of approximately 703 ETH, ranking first in the market’s daily trading volume.
At the time of writing, the floor price of Patron NFTs has also risen to 0.23 ETH, more than 2.8 times the minting price of 0.08 ETH.
Introduced by TrueMarkets, Patron NFTs are part of a decentralized binary prediction market based on Base. It allows users to predict the outcomes of real-world events, aiming to break the information asymmetry related to global news and enable people to express instant emotions about potential outcomes.
TrueMarkets plans to release its V1 version by the end of this year.
The operating mechanism of TrueMarkets, like Polymarket and other prediction platforms, simplifies complex event predictions into binary answers of “yes” or “no.” Based on this, a binary trading market is created, and the odds for both answers are adjusted in real-time according to the market’s perception. Traders and liquidity providers maintain market balance and stability.
When the final outcome of an event is revealed, tokens that match the correct answer can be redeemed for $1 in value, while tokens that do not match lose all their value.
However, TrueMarkets also has its unique features. According to Millie, the project director of TrueMarkets, in most other prediction markets, the minting of prediction tokens is usually limited to whitelisted users. TrueMarkets will eventually achieve permissionless market creation through an AI Agent.
Additionally, all trades on TrueMarkets, including trading, liquidity provision, and market creation, are directly completed on-chain through Uniswap V3.
At the same time, TrueMarkets uses a protocol-based oracle to resolve market outcomes. This oracle combines decentralized jury pools to achieve transparent decision-making.
It is worth mentioning that TrueMarkets has opened a challenge window where anyone can raise objections to proposed solutions.
To prevent manipulative behavior and ensure the orderly operation of the oracle, TrueMarkets has introduced the role of Disputer.
Specifically, when a prediction result is disputed, Disputers can challenge it by paying a $250 deposit and providing reasons for the challenge. If their challenge is accepted, Disputers not only get their deposit back but also receive corresponding rewards.
To ensure fairness and justice, TrueMarkets has established a three-stage arbitration mechanism, including challenges to the preliminary proposal, the oracle committee deciding the dispute, and token holders voting on the dispute. Each stage has different costs for Disputers, which are $250, $5,000, and holding 250,000 TRUE tokens in their wallet on the platform, respectively.
Furthermore, while Polymarket has been rumored to conduct token airdrops, the platform has not explicitly stated that it will issue its own token.
In contrast, TrueMarkets has disclosed its token economics and will launch a Token Generation Event (TGE) by the end of this year.
TRUE is the multi-functional utility token in TrueMarkets, which can be used for protocol fees and governance.
The total supply of TRUE is 100 million tokens, of which 40.3% will be distributed to Oracle Patron NFT (15,071) and Truth Seeker Patron NFT (59) holders, with each NFT corresponding to 2,666.67 TRUE tokens. 2.2% will be airdropped to Discord and beta users, and 7.5% will be used for market incentives. 12.5% will be allocated to TRUE/ETH liquidity providers on Base within two years. 12.5% will be used for oracle incentives, and the remaining 25% will be allocated to the TrueMarkets team and advisors, with linear unlocking over two years.
“Once the prediction market reaches a critical mass, a strong feedback loop is formed. The more extensive their audience, the more accurate the predictions will be. Elections are a turning point for prediction markets because they prove that these platforms are the most accurate indicators and primary news sources. Looking ahead, it is expected that the world will increasingly rely on prediction markets for news and entertainment, and the more people participate, the stronger the predictive ability of the prediction market will be.”
This is how Millie expressed the prospects for the development of prediction markets.